Sunday, March 7, 2010

Commentary: Your last-minute OFFICIAL Oscar picks and predictions


So the big show is in like two and a half hours, so, once and for all, after much deliberation and analysis (okay, after looking over the list one more time), here are my OFFICIAL (not that tossed-off post-nomination bullshit from last month) PICKS AND PREDICTIONS for your 2010 Oscars.

BEST PICTURE: It remains a two-horse race between Bigelow’s bomb diffusers and Cameron’s big smurf cats. All of the precedent-setters (save for the Golden Globes) went with The Hurt Locker, but the Oscars are a different ball of wax—money talks big in that room, and Avatar made a lot of people a lot of money. Add in the perceived political faux pas of the “email scandal,” and I think it’s gonna be an Avatar win, making it the worst movie to win Best Picture since Crash.
PICK: Up in the Air
PREDICTION: Avatar

BEST ACTOR: If anybody but Bridges takes it, it’ll be the upset of the night. Bet the farm on it.
PICK AND PREDICTION: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

BEST ACTRESS: The consensus seems to be that Sandra Bullock is going to be the winner here, and it’s got that “well, she’s been doing it a long time and she’s good in that, so what the hell” vibe about it, so she probably will win. And while it’s a good performance, there’s nothing special about it—certainly not compared to Gabourey Sidibe in Precious or Carey Mulligan in An Education. I’d like Gabby to win; let’s be honest, it’s not like she’s going to have a million more opportunities to do this kind of work, while Bullock will work forever whether or not she has a gold statue.
PICK: Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
PREDICTION: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side

SUPPORTING ACTOR: Cristoph Waltz has won pretty much every lead-up award. He will win this one too. About the only one who even touches him is Woody Harrelson, and while I can’t deny the power of his performance in The Messenger, there’s no getting around how great Waltz is as “the Jew Hunter.”
PICK AND PREDICTION: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Again, not a weak one in the bunch, but Mo’Nique will win this one—it’ll be the one that they throw to Precious, and a fine reward for a rich, beautifully modulated performance. My personal preference at the beginning of the awards season was Anna Kendrick, but after watching both films again on Blu-ray, I’m leaning towards the inevitable winner myself.
PICK AND PREDICTION: Mo’Nique, Precious

BEST DIRECTOR: Here’s where The Hurt Locker will get its due—and, at long last, a female filmmaker will win Best Director. (Bigelow’s only the fourth female nominee. Jesus Christ.) Cameron is a long, long shot—nobody wants to hear another “king of the world” speech—but if he does pull this one off, then it’s a sweep, and Avatar’s Best Picture win is a lock.
PICK AND PREDICTION: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker

I’ll be watching from work, and trying not to shout at the computer when The White Ribbon beats A Prophet for Best Foreign Film. Happy watching!

1 comment:

  1. My book club accidentally scheduled a viewing of Shutter Island and a post-movie discussion of the book for tonight. For once, I'm not all that sorry I am missing the ceremony. Just seems too predictable this year.

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